TY - JOUR AU - Han, Xin AU - Zheng, Xiaonan AU - Wang, Ying AU - Sun, Xiaoru AU - Xiao, Yi AU - Tang, Yi AU - Qin, Wei PY - 2018 TI - Random forest can accurately predict the development of end-stage renal disease in immunoglobulin a nephropathy patients JF - Annals of Translational Medicine; Vol 7, No 11 (June 14, 2019): Annals of Translational Medicine (Focus on: “Application of Artificial Intelligence to Radiology”) Y2 - 2018 KW - N2 - Background: IgA nephropathy (IgAN) is the most common glomerulonephritis worldwide and up to 40% will develop end-stage renal disease (ESRD) within 20 years. However, predicting which patients will progress to ESRD is difficult. The purpose of this study was to develop a predictive model which could accurately predict whether IgAN patients would progress to ESRD. Methods: Six machine learning algorithms were used to predict whether IgAN patients would progress to ESRD: logistic regression, random forest, support vector machine (SVM), decision tree, artificial neural network (ANN), k nearest neighbors (KNN). Nineteen demographic, clinical, pathologic and treatment parameters were used as input for the prediction models. Results: Random forest is best able to predict progression to ESRD. The model had accuracy of 93.97% and sensitivity and specificity of 80.60% and 95.27%, respectively. Conclusions: Machine learning algorithms can effectively predict which patients with IgA nephropathy will progress to end stage renal disease. UR - https://atm.amegroups.org/article/view/22901