%0 Journal Article %T Random forest can accurately predict the development of end-stage renal disease in immunoglobulin a nephropathy patients %A Han, Xin %A Zheng, Xiaonan %A Wang, Ying %A Sun, Xiaoru %A Xiao, Yi %A Tang, Yi %A Qin, Wei %J Annals of Translational Medicine %D 2018 %B 2018 %9 %! Random forest can accurately predict the development of end-stage renal disease in immunoglobulin a nephropathy patients %K %X Background: IgA nephropathy (IgAN) is the most common glomerulonephritis worldwide and up to 40% will develop end-stage renal disease (ESRD) within 20 years. However, predicting which patients will progress to ESRD is difficult. The purpose of this study was to develop a predictive model which could accurately predict whether IgAN patients would progress to ESRD. Methods: Six machine learning algorithms were used to predict whether IgAN patients would progress to ESRD: logistic regression, random forest, support vector machine (SVM), decision tree, artificial neural network (ANN), k nearest neighbors (KNN). Nineteen demographic, clinical, pathologic and treatment parameters were used as input for the prediction models. Results: Random forest is best able to predict progression to ESRD. The model had accuracy of 93.97% and sensitivity and specificity of 80.60% and 95.27%, respectively. Conclusions: Machine learning algorithms can effectively predict which patients with IgA nephropathy will progress to end stage renal disease. %U https://atm.amegroups.org/article/view/22901 %V 7 %N 11 %P 234 %@ 2305-5847